[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121128 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-121530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...NJ...SERN PA...CT...RI...MA...SRN
VT...SRN NH...ERN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 121128Z - 121530Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
SPREADING NEWD INTO ERN ME. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE
SW INCLUDING NRN VA...MD AND SRN NJ BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
SRN NJ. THIS FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WITHIN AREA OF ASCENT AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
120+ KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH. THE NWWD TRANSPORT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AREA
NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR DATA SHOW WELL ORGANIZED BANDS
OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NERN VA THROUGH MA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700
MB-500 MB LAYER ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF
SNOWFALL...AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW OCCASIONAL STRIKES ACROSS SERN
PA...NJ...SERN NY AND CT. THE MID LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
PERSISTING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SPREADING INTO ERN ME. THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT LIKELY.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

44896862 42897251 39937632 38457711 38187499 40577193
42426917 43976758 

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