[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Feb 12 00:57:35 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120056 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-120700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/DELMARVA THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 120056Z - 120700Z

...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING AS
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWS SHIFT NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NC...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING INITIAL BAROCLINIC LEAF NOW EXTENDING
WELL OFFSHORE. THE MOST INTENSE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL A FEW
HOURS AWAY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN UPPER CENTER IS NEAR PAH. NEXT
BAROCLINIC LEAF IS NOW FORMING FROM SE PA/NRN MD/NJ...AHEAD OF
DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL HAS AN ELY COMPONENT AS NOTED ON 00Z WAL
/WALLOPS ISLAND VA/ SOUNDING. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS SRN DE/ERN SHORE OF MD...WHERE SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOCATIONS HAVE
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FROM NEAR DULLES TO PHILADELPHIA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON TO TRENTON. STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER /850-650MB/ WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW...WITH HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

..TAYLOR.. 02/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

39177491 38047727 38927863 39827802 42137352 42117211
41467094 40717264 

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