[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 11 18:16:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 111815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111814 
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/WV/NRN AND WRN VA/WRN AND CNTRL MD/SRN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 111814Z - 112315Z

...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AS
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW REDEVELOP EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS... 

LATEST SATELLITE/WV LOOPS INDICATE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SWD INTO
SW MO...WITH A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING FROM SW VA INTO CNTRL GA. AT
LOWER LEVELS...SFC LOW IS DEEPENING NEAR AUGUSTA GA WHERE MODEST
PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE AFTN WILL BE IF
NEW HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OR IF BAND
NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/WV WILL JUST PIVOT EWD WITH TIME. IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTN
INTO EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES MORE INTENSE FROM THE WV PANHANDLE E TO SRN
NJ.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
ERN KY/WV WHERE STRONGEST LIFT IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL LIKELY FAVOR MODERATE SNOW RATES THIS AFTN.
FARTHER EAST...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL VA AND THEN NWD
THROUGH THE WRN SUBURBS OF DC. EAST OF THIS LINE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SNOW/RAIN
MIX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF DC LATER THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING.

..TAYLOR.. 02/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

36318218 37498354 39348051 39877854 39987758 40147611
39797576 39087726 36907886 36607984 

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