[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 110528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110528 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-110700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110528Z - 110700Z

A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SE LA...AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS
IN THE LINE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN US. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS LA WHERE A DRY SLOT IS PUNCHING EWD. THE ASCENT COMBINED WITH
A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT IS SUPPORTING THE LINE OF STORMS. THE MOBILE AL 88D VWP AT
0500Z SHOWS VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
ABOVE 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
REMOTELY POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS ESPECIALLY WITHIN LINE ECHO
WAVE PATTERNS. DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

28798952 29119017 29738993 30958798 30528669 29278801