[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 11 00:10:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 110009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110009 
LAZ000-MSZ000-110215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110009Z - 110215Z

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN LA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG A COLD
FRONT. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. 
AN 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN LA IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S F BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED SFC
HEATING IS RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LA. THIS
WILL KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 02/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

28989055 29289229 29449299 29949321 30579241 30559138
30128898 29398876 28788925 

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