[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 042140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042140 
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-042315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...PORTIONS NERN NC..EXTREME S-CENTRAL MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042140Z - 042315Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SHIFTING NWD ACROSS SERN VA WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
A TORNADO OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE. 

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT HAS ARCHED NWD ACROSS VA/NC BORDER
AND THROUGH RIC AREA.  FRONT MAY REACH WRN SHORE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER POTOMAC RIVER AREA...INCLUDING SRN FRINGES DC METRO...BEFORE
NIGHTFALL.  MOST OF SERN VA IS IN MOIST/WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DEW
POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND TEMPS PEAKING MID 60S TO 70 F. 
ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD SBCAPES 300-700
J/KG...ALONG WITH ELONGATED LOW-MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEARS.  60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND
200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER ARE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT.  TWO
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS -- LOCATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD REMAIN
LINEAR.  HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH BOW OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS CROSSING WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

35977707 35637805 36057831 36367863 37497854 38447710
38187631 37787624 37437631 36907596 36777612 36547589
36197647 

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