[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Feb 2 00:49:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 020049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020048 
LAZ000-TXZ000-020215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...

VALID 020048Z - 020215Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EVENING AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE AND OTHER CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...A NEW WW
MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 24 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LOW
OVER SCNTRL TX WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT PUNCHING EWD INTO SE TX ATTM.
A LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN THE HOUSTON AREA AND THIS FEATURE WILL
SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SRN LA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AS CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT. SFC
ANALYSIS ACROSS SRN LA CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 55
TO 60 F...SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ACROSS SE TX. THIS SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO
THREAT THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

29379144 29269290 29069400 29009464 29259507 29849520
30269513 30579450 30869338 30909197 30659117 30229105
29699108 

WWWW