[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Dec 12 21:40:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122140 
INZ000-ILZ000-122345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CST TUE DEC 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN IL...FAR WRN IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 122140Z - 122345Z

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.

SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM IL SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER LIFT NOW ACROSS IL. GIVEN
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND NARROW PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A FEW CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR A STORM OR TWO TO BECOME A SUPERCELL GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND DEEP FORCING. GIVEN NARROW WARM SECTOR...OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOCALIZED.

..JEWELL.. 12/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

38928737 38258817 38108981 39458933 41058905 41158765
40748720 39988718 

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