[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Dec 12 01:20:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120121 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CST MON DEC 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...EXTREME NERN KS...NWRN
MO...SWRN IA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120121Z - 120345Z

TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THIS REGION DURING NEXT FEW HOURS -- INITIALLY SPREADING NWD
ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER THEN ACROSS MO/IA BORDER AREA.  MAIN SVR
CONCERN WILL BE HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STG/DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN CYCLONE BETWEEN CNK-MHK...WITH ONE WARM
FRONTAL STRUCTURE EXTENDING EWD THROUGH MKC AREA AND ANOTHER
CORRESPONDING TO INVERTED TROUGH NEWD NEAR OMA.  SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT
NEWD TOWARD SRN IA.  LIKEWISE...STRONGEST LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL FORCING
WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME...PRIMARILY N OF SRN WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT.
 TOP RAOB...WHICH WAS WELL LOCATED TO SAMPLE MIDLEVEL AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT...ALONG WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATE PLUME OF FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WILL SHIFT EWD AND NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.  MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EACH SHOULD
INCREASE IN LOW LEVELS...NEAR NWRN PERIPHERY OF 35-45 KT LLJ.  THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AREA OF MUCAPES AROUND 500-700 J/KG THAT WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH WEAKENING CINH.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED AND OCCASIONALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  FAVORABLE DEEPER-LAYER
SHEARS -- I.E. 0-6 KM VALUES 50-75 KT THAT COVER MOST OF
CAPE-BEARING LAYER -- ALSO WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION AS
STRONG HEIGHT GRADIENT MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF KS/NEB UPPER
CYCLONE.

..EDWARDS.. 12/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

39399466 39559617 39899721 40599700 41739581 41959434
41049325 40029360 39529425 