[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 1 23:14:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 012316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012315 
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-020015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 012315Z - 020015Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE OUTRULED. A WW WILL MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 992 MB LOW OVER NERN NY. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD
ACROSS ERN NY...ERN PA INTO WRN MD. A WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL-LINE IS
ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS LINE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE 80 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED NEAR SRN NJ AND
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS CREATING A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE WELL-DEVELOPED LINE
MOVES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE DUE TO
THE WEAK INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

41227135 41027292 41037343 41387368 42477343 42897229
42627075 41607044 

WWWW