[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 1 21:07:12 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 012108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012108 
MAZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN VA...SRN/ERN NY...MD...ERN
PA...DC...NJ...WRN CT...SRN VT...WRN MA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 874...875...876...

VALID 012108Z - 012315Z

SEGMENTED/LINEAR CONVECTION GENERALLY HAS REINVIGORATED OVER ERN PA
AND SRN NY...AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND BY BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
ADVECTION.  ADDITIONAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND WEAK HEATING --
DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS -- MAY MRGLLY DESTABILIZE RAIN-COOLED AIR NOW
EVIDENT OVER EXTREME NERN PA...OVER MOST OF NJ...AND SERN NY. 
PRE-STORM MLCAPES SHOULD BE PEAKING AT 250-500 J/KG...CENTERED NEAR
AXIS FROM BGM-FDK.  DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN MAIN THREAT...AND
QLCS-TYPE TORNADIC SPINUP STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS AND INTENSE LLJ JUST ABOVE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES....EVEN AS
INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE CONSTRAINED ON THREE SIDES BY COLD
FRONT...WARM FRONT AND MARINE LAYER.  DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
DECREASE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF WARM FRONT...CORRESPONDING TO
STRONGER/DEEPER LAYER OF NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT. 
SVR PROBABILITIES WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS CONVECTIVE FORCING ZONE PENETRATES INTO AIR MASS
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABILIZED BOTH BY MARINE LAYER
TRAJECTORIES...AND BY SFC DIABATIC COOLING.  STILL...SOME DAMAGING
GUST POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND E OF WW 876...SO THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED.

..EDWARDS.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

39137767 40587702 42557628 43047578 43607440 43297268
42937246 42717224 42157220 41217269 40717283 40527392
40137402 39517423 38907530 38837740 