[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 1 05:44:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010545 
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-010715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...MIDDLE TN...NE AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 010545Z - 010715Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS
ACROSS NE AL...MIDDLE TN AND SRN KY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL STILL BE MONITORED IN CASE INTENSIFICATION
OCCURS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF PADUCAH KY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LIKELY
EXISTS SSEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE
OCCURRING ATTM. A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ALONG THE PRESSURE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AHEAD
OF THE LINE...SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 70KT AND
0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT) WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LOW MAY RESULT IN
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT
ACCOMPANIES THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.  A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELLS AS THE LINE CROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

33668522 33548670 35098673 36208654 36938609 36768472
35388475 