[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010423 
ALZ000-010600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 010423Z - 010600Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL AL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH LATE THIS EVENING.

A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN AL
WITH A LINE-ECHO WAVE PATTERN SHOWING UP SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA AL. THE
LINE IS LIKELY LOCATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER-LOW. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE LINE AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK
/100-300 J/KG BELOW 600 MB WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES/...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR BELOW 3 KM. THIS SUGGESTS THE WIND PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS IN THE CONVECTIVE
LINE. ALTHOUGH LESS OF A THREAT...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

32628714 32858754 33138782 33928765 34018680 33668623
32868631