[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 26 16:00:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261555 
MIZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN LOWER MI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS EXPANDING ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL LM...WITH
NRN PORTION MOVING INLAND BETWEEN TVC-MBL.  REMAINDER OF THIS
ACTIVITY -- AS WELL AS MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN LM AND I-75
-- WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSING AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS.  EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS WILL
POSE MOST CONCENTRATED WIND THREAT.

DIFFUSE AND DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED.  SRN PORTION 
EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OH AND NERN INDIANA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
EXTREME SRN LM.  NRN FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DTW AREA NWWD
THROUGH LDM AND OVER N-CENTRAL LM...THEN WWD TO WEAK LOW OVER NERN
WI.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INVOF WARM FRONT ARE FAVORABLE.  SFC
FLOW INVOF NRN WARM FRONT IS RELATIVELY BACKED WITH ENOUGH ELY
COMPONENT TO FAVORABLY ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  MODIFIED APX
VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH FOR
STORMS MOVING DUE E IN THIS REGIME. ..THOUGH AIR MASS NE OF NRN WARM
FRONT BECOMES TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED TSTMS.  ALTHOUGH VIS
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT RATE
OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION...LIFTED
PARCELS ALONG AND S OF NRN WARM FRONT MAY BE ROOTED NEAR SFC
ALREADY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR OBSERVED LOW 70S F SFC TEMPS
AND 70 F DEW POINT YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE...WITH VERY WEAK CINH AND EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTED AT
GROUND LEVEL.  THIS INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MOVING OFF ERN LM MAY
BECOME SFC BASED RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MOVING INLAND...IF NOT ALREADY
SO.  WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
LOWER MI AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW
DIURNAL HEATING.

..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

44048403 43788485 43898642 44098708 44578638 45438506
45608455 45288379 44418370 