[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 24 19:55:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241957 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 742...

VALID 241957Z - 242200Z

THREAT FOR MOSTLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO WITH STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL
ND. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER S INTO SD. THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. SRN PORTIONS OF WW 742 MAY BE REPLACED BY A
TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

THIS AFTERNOON AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL ND TO A
SURFACE LOW IN NRN SD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO
SWRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO
S CNTRL SD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN ND WILL MAINTAIN STORMS OVER CNTRL ND
NEXT FEW HOURS. 

FARTHER S INTO SD...A STRONG EML AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN SD HAVE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SO FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND ISOLATED HIGH
BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ZONE OF STRONG MIXING NEAR THE
DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD
INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE IS AROUND 3500 J/KG.

..DIAL.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

47539757 46359631 44779638 44599819 43439985 43490117
45830062 48270087 48429997 

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