[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 24 19:43:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241944 
MNZ000-WIZ000-242215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241944Z - 242215Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW
740 AS THREAT FOR SFC BASED STORMS INCREASE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS CLOUD STREETS STREAMING ACROSS
NRN IA NEAR AXA/MCW...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MN ARE
OBSCURING A BETTER VIEW OF SFC CUMULUS. SFC TEMPS ACROSS SW MN ARE
NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS WEAK OR COMPLETELY GONE. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH
INDICATED ON THE MINNEAPOLIS VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. 

COMPLICATING FACTOR IS BAND OF CONVECTION/ASCENT APPROACHING FROM
ERN SD. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL HELP INITIATE SFC BASED
STORMS ACROSS SWRN MN.

..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...

43759434 44069612 45099619 44899432 44519225 43809205
43709286 

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