[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 24 18:03:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241805 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH SERN MN/WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...

VALID 241805Z - 242000Z

...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN/SWRN WI WITH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS SPREADING INTO WCNTRL MN...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD THROUGH SRN
MN...WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY DEPICT A SECONDARY IMPULSE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND.
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY...WITH A
BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR ABERDEEN SD TO VALENTINE NEB AND
ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IN WCNTRL MN.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E/SEWD
FROM WCNTRL MN AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A LOCAL EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MORRISON/MILLE LACS AND KANABEC
COUNTIES...GIVEN STRONG STORM NOW IN POPE COUNTY. 

SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS SWRN MN...WHICH
HAS BEEN IN A RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE ZONE. AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THIS AFTN FOR SIGNS OF
SFC-BASED STORMS. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTN.

..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...

43169119 44569607 46319610 44839094 43219094 

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