[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 24 15:17:03 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241518 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-241645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MN...WRN WI.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...

VALID 241518Z - 241645Z

COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS IS EXPANDING ACROSS SERN MN ATTM...BETWEEN
WRIGHT AND HOUSTON COUNTIES...AND INCLUDING SWRN PORTIONS TWIN
CITIES AREA.  COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD WHILE EXPANDING
ALONG EITHER END...INCLUDING INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI NOT PRESENTLY
IN WW. LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACCORDINGLY.  VERY
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL -- ESTIMATED UP TO 4.25 INCH DIAMETER --- WAS
REPORTED IN SCOTT COUNTY MN 1452Z FROM CORES NOW OVER RICE
COUNTY...ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL EMBEDDED IN COMPLEX.  ANOTHER
SUPERCELL MOVING FROM RICE INTO GOODHUE COUNTY HAS PRODUCED SVR HAIL
AS WELL.  BACKBUILDING CONTINUES ON W SIDE OF THIS
COMPLEX...POTENTIAL FOR WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER
MORNING.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE NOT ONLY TO REDUNDANT SVR POTENTIAL
IN SOME AREAS...BUT ALSO TO TRAINING OF ECHOES THAT WILL EXACERBATE
HEAVY RAIN RISKS.  MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR ELEVATED
HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS WITH LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR
POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT NEAR LINE 50 S LSE...20 S
ULM...HON.  EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DRIFT NWD ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH
18Z...SOMEWHAT MORE QUICKLY OVER SWRN MN THAN OVER TWIN CITIES
REGION WHERE ONGOING MCS IS REINFORCING LOW LEVEL STATIC STABILITY. 
AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR SFC-BASED
TSTMS...HOWEVER LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ABOVE FRONTAL SFC
WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY
THREAT WITH MODIFIED 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWING ELEVATED MUCAPES 4000
J/KG...AMIDST 55-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

46279496 45239132 44109097 43479130 43939456 44639646
45279649 46009580 

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