[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Thu Aug 17 20:47:50 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 172049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172048
KSZ000-OKZ000-172245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 172048Z - 172245Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. WHILE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH ELONGATED WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SW-NE ORIENTED STREAKS OF TOWERING CU/SOME CBS ARE NOTED
AS OF 2030Z FROM WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHERN KS.
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...STRONG INSOLATION/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 90S/LOWER 100S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2250 J/KG AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED/CINH
ERODES. FARTHER NORTH...WHILE INITIALLY RELATIVELY MORE STABLE VIA
MORNING CONVECTION...RETREATING/NORTHWARD SHIFTING EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT WILL ALLOW AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 IN NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KS.
OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD VIA MODEST STORM MOTIONS/POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IN A
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT /1.5-2.0 IN/.
..GUYER.. 08/17/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
38859928 39769786 39799642 39549543 38439541 35489793
34569919 34709961 35399984 36829984
WWWW
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