[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 172049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172048 
KSZ000-OKZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 172048Z - 172245Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. WHILE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH ELONGATED WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SW-NE ORIENTED STREAKS OF TOWERING CU/SOME CBS ARE NOTED
AS OF 2030Z FROM WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHERN KS.
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...STRONG INSOLATION/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 90S/LOWER 100S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2250 J/KG AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED/CINH
ERODES. FARTHER NORTH...WHILE INITIALLY RELATIVELY MORE STABLE VIA
MORNING CONVECTION...RETREATING/NORTHWARD SHIFTING EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT WILL ALLOW AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 IN NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KS.
OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD VIA MODEST STORM MOTIONS/POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IN A
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT /1.5-2.0 IN/.

..GUYER.. 08/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

38859928 39769786 39799642 39549543 38439541 35489793
34569919 34709961 35399984 36829984 

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