[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 142018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142017 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AR...OK...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142017Z - 142215Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SWRN INTO
ERN OK AND NWRN AR.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OK IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACCORDING
TO SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IS LOCATED ALONG A CDS/CSM/OUN/MKO/SOUTH
OF HRO LINE.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN AR...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE NEAR THE OUTFLOW OVER OK.  STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN/CENTRAL OK WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  AREA PROFILERS/VAD
WINDS SHOW 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER...PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.  IN
ADDITION...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SW OF ABI IS LIFTING NNEWD
TOWARD NWRN TX WITH DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
INTO SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE
MAY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..WEISS.. 08/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

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