[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141942 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN/CNTRL KY...NRN
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141942Z - 142145Z

A BAND OF STRONG MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
KY TOWARD NRN MIDDLE TN.  IN THE WAKE OF THE KY CONVECTION...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BAND ACROSS CENTRAL KY HAVE INTENSIFIED
SOMEWHAT WITH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING SMALL SCALE BOWING
STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH 15-20 KT FORWARD SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD
DIMINISH ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN
ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS IS WARM/MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-2C TO
-4C AT 500 MB/ IS RESULTING IN WEAK DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF UPWARD PARCEL ACCELERATION.  STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BELOW 900 MB MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE
PERMITTED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
INTO THE LOW/MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.  COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD INTO SRN IL/SWRN
IN AND WRN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  AREA WIND PROFILERS/VAD WINDS
INDICATE WLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT ABOVE 2 KM AGL PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

..WEISS.. 08/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

36949190 37929156 38559058 38458922 38358733 37858575
37368483 36878494 36118532 35968663 36528945 36669133 

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