[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Aug 13 18:56:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131858 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NW MO...SW/S CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131858Z - 132030Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.  THIS IS ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F.  BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING
INHIBITION IN AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY A TOPEKA/OMAHA/KANSAS CITY
LINE.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
ACROSS THIS REGION...AND INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 20-22Z...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH MO AND LAMONI IA.  THIS PROBABLY WILL BE AIDED BY
LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ON TAIL END OF BROADER SCALE MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW VEERING TO 30 KT WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 500 MB...ABOVE LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR
PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

..KERR.. 08/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

41909400 41819300 41169281 40529297 39619386 39339489
39919582 40659520 

WWWW