[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 130004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130004 
MNZ000-SDZ000-130130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130004Z - 130130Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN NEB
INTO SE SD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75 F RANGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS IS ONGOING
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE CENTER OF A
40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE MCS IS MOVING PRIMARILY ENEWD
ATTM...THE STORMS MAY TEND TO DRIFT MORE EWD WITH TIME AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ENEWD INTO MN. THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT
PARTS OF SW MN LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING
INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR QUICKLY ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SEVERE MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
SQUALL-LINE. SUPERCELLS MAY BRIEFLY HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL
ALTHOUGH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.

..BROYLES.. 08/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

43619474 43499734 43849815 44619768 44819605 44679503
44359446 

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