[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051824 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051824Z - 052100Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SLOWING INCREASING WITHIN A BAND FROM EXTREME
NWRN MN INTO SERN ND...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ND.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND A WW IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEEDED BY 20Z.

RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND/EXTREME NWRN MN
HAVE PERIODICALLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HOUR WITHIN A BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION.  STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...BUT
SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNLESS THEY ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED.

AREA WITH GREATER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF DVL
TO SOUTH OF BIS.  ALTHOUGH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WEAK FALLS IN ADVANCE WILL ENHANCE ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...PERSISTENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE INHIBITED WIDESPREAD STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON.  NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD MANITOBA
AND ND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50-60 KT FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS ND WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 40-45 KT EXPECTED IN
THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.

..WEISS.. 08/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...

48779826 49029790 48979482 48529439 47109483 45889622
45919826 45950031 

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