[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051822 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-051945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL GA...THE SC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN...SRN NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051822Z - 051945Z

SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 19-20Z.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY ALONG AND S OF A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS STALLED FROM JUST N OF AGS TO NEAR CAE AND
ILM.  CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES ACROSS GA AND SC.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK OVER
THIS AREA...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS.  THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME...THOUGH
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION STILL APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..THOMPSON.. 08/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

34357998 34337893 34297847 34117836 33887903 33407953
33058005 32748058 32608135 32788207 32838335 33128400
33508393 33868234 34188079 

WWWW