[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 050321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050320 
SDZ000-NDZ000-050345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...

VALID 050320Z - 050345Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.  WW
685 WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT 04Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

AREA WSR-88DS AND WIND PROFILERS SHOWED A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ /UP
TO 40 KT/ ACROSS WRN NEB THIS EVENING. SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW REMAINING OVER NWRN SD.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDED WSWWD FROM THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN ND
AND A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED WSWWD FROM THE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL SD.  NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF
BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WAA IS MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SLY LLJ AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 
INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...WILL MAINTAIN
A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE TREND FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO ERN PARTS OF SD/ND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
MORE STABLE.  AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED...THUS PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW.

..PETERS.. 08/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

44339856 43489948 43710140 44530159 45550125 46590030
46659834 46449749 45299787 

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