[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 5 00:46:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 050047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050046 
NDZ000-SDZ000-050145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...

VALID 050046Z - 050145Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 685 IN CENTRAL SD AND
SRN ND.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SIOUX
COUNTY ND TO JUST S OF JMS...WITH A SECOND AREA OF STORMS MOVING EWD
THROUGH CENTRAL SD TO THE W AND N OF PIR.  THESE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH A NARROW N-S ORIENTED AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT SUPPORTING ORGANIZATION/ SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES... EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
RANGING FROM 200-400 M2/S2 FROM EMMONS COUNTY ND TO LYMAN COUNTY SD
INDICATED AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND RESULTANT THREAT
FOR HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.  HIGH BASED STORMS DUE TO DEEP
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS UP TO
40 DEGREES SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT
AS WELL.

..PETERS.. 08/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

43760138 46650104 46639804 45989812 43719913 43470014 

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