[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 3 17:26:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031727 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA...SE NY...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031727Z - 031930Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.  A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z...IF NOT SOONER...PROBABLY
INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BUT...IT APPEARS WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING IS UNDERWAY...AND
STRONG HEATING IS ONGOING ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE POCONO AND CATSKILL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 90S
TO AROUND 100F...MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY
AFTER 21Z WITH THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EVOLVING NEAR
THE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK BORDER.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE REACHED EARLIER...SUPPORTING INITIATION OF
ADDITIONAL NEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLY SHEARED
REGIME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES.

..KERR.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

41997487 42467387 42497258 42657131 41997007 41277038
40697279 40567438 41147563 41787551 

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