[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031459 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL IND...N CNTRL OH...NRN PA/SRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031459Z - 031630Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ONE
OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY.

CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES ON
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  UPPER FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS
SETTING UP AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.  THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFYING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18-19Z...PROBABLY MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST
OF BUFFALO NY INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF CLEVELAND OH.  

THOUGH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR DOWNBURSTS AND
SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTIONS AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

40458578 41258406 41738246 42238110 42477890 42487768
41777723 41367761 41007974 40298200 39578383 39558576 

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