[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 18:08:25 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021809 
MIZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670...

VALID 021809Z - 021945Z

CONTINUE WW.

MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION.  INLAND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL
APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS
NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..KERR.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628
44968627 

AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS.

FURTHER NE...COPIOUS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SLOW
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND CINH REMOVAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 21Z
ALONG THE FRONT IN NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA.
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA ALSO SUPPORTING SOME
DMGG WIND POTENTIAL IF STORMS DEVELOP.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

39429848 38849985 38160035 37940025 37759925 38139814
38739699 39159594 39949429 40489435 40969467 40889536
40199646 

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