[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 17:42:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021742 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA...SRN WI/FAR NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021742Z - 021945Z

ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN IA ENEWD INTO SRN WI. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FOND DU LAC WSWWD TO NEAR DBQ TO NEAR DSM.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL HEATING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA. HOWEVER
MODERATE CONVERGENCE /STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER NWRN IA/ MAY
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK CINH. FURTHER EAST...MUCH GREATER HEATING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN SRN WI SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 20Z. OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...A BELT
OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW /45-50 KTS/ WAS NOTED ON REGIONAL
VWP/PROFILER DATA. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
LINES AND/OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
POTENTIAL WHEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

44048773 43358921 42679116 42529204 41989322 41649320
41479291 41469275 41499170 41649029 42068926 42598842
43008793 43168776 

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