[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 00:17:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 020018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020017 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-020215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NEB...WRN/NRN IA...FAR SERN SD AND SRN
MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666...

VALID 020017Z - 020215Z

CLUSTER OF STG-SVR STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA
/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 666/ OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SVR THREAT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REMAINDER OF NRN IA/SRN MN. THIS
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA
MOVING NEWD AROUND 30 KTS SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOW LEVEL JET /30-35
KTS PER REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA/. DMGG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NRN IA INTO SCENTRAL MN WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES
FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET THIS EVENING THE DMGG WIND THREAT MAY THEREFORE REMAIN
MOSTLY MARGINAL AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF WW 666. ANOTHER WW EAST
OF WW 666 IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH WOULD TEND
TO OFFSET THE WEAKER LAPSE RATES GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY/WIND FIELDS. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL SVR THREAT
EAST OF WW 666...STORM MOTIONS/BNDRY ORIENTATION ALONG WITH DEEP
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL OVER SRN MN/NRN IA.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

41729960 39879963 41859573 42499377 42609163 43629092
44179141 44159497 

WWWW