[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 1 19:49:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011948 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-012145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD AND NWRN
IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011948Z - 012145Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA. STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR A WW
BEFORE 22Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SFC LOW CENTER NEAR
LEXINGTON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NCENTRAL KS AND NEWD
INTO FAR NWRN IA/SERN SD. HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
/95-100 DEG F/ HAS SUPPORTED DECREASING CINH OVER THE AREA AS
EVIDENT BY THE MDT CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND OTHER RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
SHOULD OVERCOME THE REMAINING CINH AND SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /INITIALLY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/ IN THE NEXT 1-3 FEW HRS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 25-35 KT LOW-MID LEVEL SWLY
FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

42039853 41689935 41130017 40340023 39999955 40469817
41299690 41719606 42059556 42489560 42849581 42949639
42549765 

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