[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 1 18:41:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011842 
MIZ000-WIZ000-012045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011842Z - 012045Z

ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LOWER MI WILL LIKELY BEGIN POSING
A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE NEXT HR. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN WI IN THE NEXT
1-3 HRS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE 20Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
/NEAR APN TO JUST SOUTH OF TVC/. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI /JUST NORTH OF
THE DELLS/. THE AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY TO VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH REMAINING
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MARGINAL /20-25
KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS SOME
ORGANIZED LINEAR WIND DMGG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
IN PLACE. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF MCV OVER NRN IA MAY
AID IN FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO CENTRAL/ECENTRAL WI
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEREFORE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. IF PRIOR TO 20Z...A WW WOULD
BE ISSUED BY AFWA /AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY/.

..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...

45238386 44758658 44589037 43949047 43199030 43018912
43628632 44298373 44658292 

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