[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011741 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011741Z - 011945Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND APPROACH AREAS
OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
20-21Z...WHEN A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. 
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS ELEVATED ABOVE REMNANT/RETREATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...BUT BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL /MORE
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPSTREAM
IMPULSE PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER MAY ALREADY BE INITIATING ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO/SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND MAY
NOT AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...NEW
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT COULD SPREAD INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AREA OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z.  WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS ALONG/WEST OF OUTFLOW IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG
AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

..KERR.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...

46757950 47827693 47417381 46047059 45357024 44537047
44277107 44317208 44437271 44687343 45117443 45837695 

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