[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 1 17:05:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011706 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-011900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...PARTS OF NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011706Z - 011900Z

AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD
AFFECT PARTS OF THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA BY AROUND 21Z.

WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WEST OF
RETREATING/ERODING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IS VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.  AND...UNINHIBITED INSOLATION IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...DESPITE
PRESENCE OF WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK
IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY STRONGER CAP BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...WEAKER CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FARTHER EAST ACROSS
THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THUS...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN FAVORABLE
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DEEPENING/INTENSIFICATION
APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE
UPDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE SHEARED
REGIME BENEATH 30-35 NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.

..KERR.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

44517388 44297288 43877270 43027253 42907176 41927122
41327207 40667377 40457446 40937545 41687507 41987467
42567430 43627424 44027415 

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