[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 271921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271920 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN KS...WRN PANHANDLES OF
OK AND TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271920Z - 272115Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES SE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR CYS. TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SWD IN ERN CO INTO NERN NM/OK AND TX
PANHANDLES IN VICINITY OF A MESOLOW NEAR SPD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG
SPEED SHEAR. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN CO/WRN NEB AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. TO THE S OF THIS
CONVECTION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO A N/S ORIENTED TROUGH ACROSS
ERN CO AND MESOLOW IN SERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION ALONG THE CO/NM/OK BORDER. MODIFIED
MORNING RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. GDA WIND PROFILER
INDICATES GOOD MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH 50 KTS OF WLY FLOW AT 6
KM. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
VICINITY OF THE MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES...WITH RELATIVELY
LOW LCL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...WEAK 0-1 KM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
KEY MITIGATING FACTOR.

..GRAMS.. 08/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

37300417 37750350 38140332 39190328 39950255 40190191
39240144 38000080 37070096 35930174 35380262 35290413
35990476 36980464 

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