[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 240914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240914 
NDZ000-MTZ000-241045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NW ND...ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 240914Z - 241045Z

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN ND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY BY 10Z ACROSS THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CNTRL MT WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN
ND ATTM. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW EXISTS ACROSS SE MT/WRN SD WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING MAKING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. THE
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL INITIALLY BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...AS SHEAR
INCREASES...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

46840123 46800341 46280424 46110513 46730647 47880628
48770473 48960221 48670087 47550050 

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