[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 24 00:15:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240017 
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-240215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/SRN AND CNTRL WI/NERN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 734...

VALID 240017Z - 240215Z

...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT NOW ACROSS CNTRL WI...

WELL DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN MN SOUTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES METRO TO JUST EAST OF LA CROSSE TO MADISON...REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN STORM OF INTEREST IS NOW ACROSS
MONROE COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...AND
RECENTLY HAD 2 INCH SIZE HAIL/SEVERE WINDS REPORTED. TAMDAR
SOUNDINGS NEAR MINNEAPOLIS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BE CONFIRMED WITH 00Z
SOUNDING DATA. ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND WIND PROFILER/VAD DATA ARE
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER
SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT...WITH VEERING WINDS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

MAIN ISSUE SO FAR HAS BEEN LACK OF INITIATION SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW
ENTERING NRN IND. WE WILL WAIT FOR SOUNDING DATA BEFORE ISSUING
CLEARANCE LINES...BUT TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z APPEARS TO
BE WANING ACROSS BOTH WRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. IF A STORM
FORMS ON OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...IT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...MPX...

42789029 43809152 44729103 44308922 43978814 43638822
42358846 

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