[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 3 21:58:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 032159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032159 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-040000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL IND...SRN IL...SWRN OH AND FAR NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032159Z - 040000Z

TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO POSE SVR WIND THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN
IL...CENTRAL/SRN IND IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN OH INTO SERN IND. ADDITIONAL
STG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HR OVER CENTRAL IND AND
PORTIONS OF SRN IL ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AIRMASS WAS MOST UNSTABLE
OVER SRN IND AND FAR NRN KY/SWRN OH...MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500
J/KG...WHERE AMPLE HEATING HAS OCCURRED. FURTHER NORTH...HIGH CLOUD
COVER HAS REDUCED HEATING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT /MLCAPES
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/. DESPITE THE WEAKER INSTABILITY...SLIGHTLY
GREATER FORCING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
IL/IND AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SVR
POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER SRN IL/CENTRAL IND IN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...IT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM IF
CONVECTION IN EITHER AREA CAN GROW UPSCALE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW.

..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

40028514 39818641 39688699 38768886 38338912 38148890
37938803 37648653 37858558 38298449 38908413 39448411
39888448 

WWWW