[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 030054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030053 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...NRN MO AND SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...675...

VALID 030053Z - 030300Z

THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS WILL END ACROSS WW 674 WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR
SO...ACROSS NERN AND SCENTRAL KS. THUS WW 674 SHOULD BE CANCELLED
BEFORE THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
FAR NERN KS/SERN NEB WILL MOVE ENEWD FROM 30-35 KTS INT0 FAR SWRN IA
AND NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH A CONTINUED PRIMARILY DMGG
WIND THREAT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES /3-4 MB PER 2 HR/
BEHIND A WELL ORGANIZED OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ENEWD
AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB. A COMPARISON OF THE
00Z TOP AND DVN SOUNDING REVEALS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE. GIVEN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
THIS REGION AND SUPPORT OF COLD POOL AND INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET THIS EVENING...CONVECTIVE STRENGTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 675 ACROSS SWRN IA/NWRN MO.
AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THE KC METRO AREA AHEAD OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF WW 675 DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORECAST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40 KTS/
AND THE REMAINDER OF NRN MO/SRN IA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE
LATER THIS EVENING.

..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

40939414 40499634 39539647 38679589 38889427 39909165
40469119 41139142 

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