[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
Mcd at goshenarc.org
Fri Apr 28 15:44:10 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 281543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281543
TXZ000-281715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 281543Z - 281715Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...POSSIBLY BEFORE NOON.
TIMING OF INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER..LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
INHIBITION HAS BECOME RATHER WEAK NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF DRY LINE...FROM
THE LUBBOCK AREA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO...WHERE MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR WITH CONTINUING INSOLATION...AND A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING
AS MID/UPPER JET NOSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A 30+ KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR PROFILES EASILY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD FORM AS EARLY AS 17-18Z. LATEST TRENDS
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK.
..KERR.. 04/28/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
33750182 33530079 32980042 32240067 31360115 31290199
32080193 32800219
WWWW
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