[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 28 15:44:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 281543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281543 
TXZ000-281715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281543Z - 281715Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...POSSIBLY BEFORE NOON.

TIMING OF INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER..LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
INHIBITION HAS BECOME RATHER WEAK NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF DRY LINE...FROM
THE LUBBOCK AREA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO...WHERE MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR WITH CONTINUING INSOLATION...AND A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING
AS MID/UPPER JET NOSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  A 30+ KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR PROFILES EASILY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD FORM AS EARLY AS 17-18Z.  LATEST TRENDS
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK.

..KERR.. 04/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

33750182 33530079 32980042 32240067 31360115 31290199
32080193 32800219 

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