[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 251925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251925 
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251925Z - 252130Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS STILL
EXPECTED...WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW. 

AREA OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS FEATURE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  LACK OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION DUE TO RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MAY REMAIN THE CASE.

HOWEVER...CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN MOIST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY PROBABLY WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SOME INTENSIFICATION TO ONGOING ACTIVITY.  AND...A MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER COULD SLOWLY EVOLVE IN 40+ KT MEAN FLOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  IF THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA...WHERE DRIER BUT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS.

..KERR.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...OHX...

38498313 38548273 38728188 39128048 38487975 38017971
37108027 36528188 36288303 36158406 36528482 37408384
37948348 

WWWW