[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 251835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251835 
TXZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251835Z - 252030Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE BETWEEN 21-23Z. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING CAP
ACROSS S-CNTRL TX ALONG A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR DRT NEWD TO
SAT AND CLL. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN AGITATED CUMULUS ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO...WITH A WEAK MESO HIGH JUST N
OF IAH. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM...THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER REGION AND THEN NEWD WITH TIME.
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH MLCAPES OF 3000 TO 4000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOW AND MOST OF THE MID-LEVELS
IS FAIRLY WEAK. MODEST WLY FLOW FROM 500 MB AND ABOVE WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE VALUES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

29310086 29530088 29799967 30049797 30599653 30509541
29409480 28729560 27669772 27569961 

WWWW