[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 25 15:45:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 251542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251542 
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-251745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251542Z - 251745Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY...PERHAPS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER....ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IS EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
MIGRATING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT.  THIS FEATURE IS ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODERATELY STRONG CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE. 

ONGOING ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF BOWLING GREEN SHORTLY.  AND...A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS INFLOW FROM A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE LEXINGTON/LONDON/SOMERSET AREAS STRENGTHENS BY
18-19Z.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...AIDED BY BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME
HAIL...BUT WITH CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...PEAK HAIL SIZES
MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE.

..KERR.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

37718582 38328513 38538426 38528328 38328240 37728197
36908231 36018339 35948465 35918570 36488624 37028604
37348591 

WWWW