[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 25 10:01:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 250958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250957 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-251200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...S-CENTRAL/SERN
OK...SWRN-CENTRAL AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248...

VALID 250957Z - 251200Z

CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DIMINISHING SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER WW AREA...AND ALSO...WITH EWD
EXTENT ACROSS AR AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS. ACCORDINGLY...PORTIONS WW
MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 12Z EXPIRATION.  MEANWHILE...WW
SHOULD BE CLEARED BEHIND FROPA.

SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT AT 930Z FROM JACK/COOKE COUNTIES
TX NEWD THROUGH HUGHES COUNTY OK...BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER N AMIDST
BLEND OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO
STABILIZE BEHIND THIS FRONT FROM W-E AND TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  MEANWHILE...MCS HAS EXITED
ERN PORTIONS WW...AND REMAINS LARGELY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL AR ATTM.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG MERIDIONAL GRADIENT IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AR. COMPLEX SOON WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT
MUCH MORE HOSTILE FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION WITH MUCAPES
DROPPING BELOW 500 J/KG.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER ITS OWN OUTFLOW POOL OVER SERN OK...HOWEVER THIS AIR
MASS WILL CONTAIN MORE ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER WITH WEAKER CAPE THAN
WAS AVAILABLE TO INITIAL ACTIVITY.  STRONGER MUCAPE -- UP TO 2500
J/KG -- REMAINS E OF COLD FRONT AND S OF COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...OVER RED RIVER REGION OF SERN OK/NERN TX.  STRENGTHENING
CAPPING WITH SWD EXTENT...AND WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 25 KT OR LESS
OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION...LEND CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT FURTHER
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.

..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34699535 34459378 34769305 35129294 35089187 34429168
33679222 33359530 33689719 

WWWW