[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 250604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250603 
ARZ000-250800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN AR.

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 250603Z - 250800Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWRN AR COMPLEX...THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM IN ITS PROJECTED PATH.  

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- LEFT BEHIND BY AFTERNOON
MCS -- FROM NEAR PBF WNWWD ACROSS LATIMER/PUSHMATAHA COUNTY LINE. 
LINE OF TSTMS -- NOW MOVING ESEWD 40-45 KT ACROSS NERN AR -- IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL AR AND WEAKEN.  ITS OWN OUTFLOW ALREADY HAS SURGED
10-20 NM AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES...AS
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM FSM.  THERE MAY STILL
BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- BUT CAPABLE OF
DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAK STRUCTURES -- ALONG WITH
INTERMITTENT/MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN LAYER OF
ELEVATED BUOYANCY ATOP OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ELEVATED MUCAPES
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG OK/AR BORDER...TO LESS THAN
500 J/KG FROM LIT EWD.

..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

35119441 35509353 35989313 36389287 36179142 35779098
34799158 34559302 34909414 

WWWW