[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
Mcd at goshenarc.org
Tue Apr 25 06:06:41 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 250604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250603
ARZ000-250800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN AR.
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 250603Z - 250800Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWRN AR COMPLEX...THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM IN ITS PROJECTED PATH.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- LEFT BEHIND BY AFTERNOON
MCS -- FROM NEAR PBF WNWWD ACROSS LATIMER/PUSHMATAHA COUNTY LINE.
LINE OF TSTMS -- NOW MOVING ESEWD 40-45 KT ACROSS NERN AR -- IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL AR AND WEAKEN. ITS OWN OUTFLOW ALREADY HAS SURGED
10-20 NM AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES...AS
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM FSM. THERE MAY STILL
BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- BUT CAPABLE OF
DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAK STRUCTURES -- ALONG WITH
INTERMITTENT/MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN LAYER OF
ELEVATED BUOYANCY ATOP OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ELEVATED MUCAPES
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG OK/AR BORDER...TO LESS THAN
500 J/KG FROM LIT EWD.
..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...
35119441 35509353 35989313 36389287 36179142 35779098
34799158 34559302 34909414
WWWW
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